* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 61 67 74 77 77 74 70 67 67 66 65 64 63 63 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 61 67 74 77 77 74 69 66 59 58 57 56 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 63 71 77 81 84 84 81 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 18 13 15 14 16 9 12 4 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 4 1 7 3 -2 -3 -1 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 3 19 15 357 10 20 64 33 44 44 204 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.1 29.2 27.9 27.1 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 170 170 170 168 170 170 165 155 142 134 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 8 8 12 8 10 6 8 5 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 73 69 71 68 67 62 58 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 23 34 46 54 75 90 63 65 48 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 65 76 76 63 54 4 32 6 24 6 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -11 -6 0 -4 -12 -13 -3 -2 4 2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 80 59 30 11 30 127 233 93 12 9 20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.4 23.3 24.3 25.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.8 104.3 104.7 105.1 105.9 106.8 107.9 109.2 110.4 111.4 112.3 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 35 37 39 42 44 36 31 25 14 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 24. 28. 27. 24. 20. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 103.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 47.1% 29.7% 20.1% 15.1% 28.4% 24.6% 20.4% Logistic: 8.2% 27.2% 12.4% 7.4% 1.8% 11.7% 6.7% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 11.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% 5.3% 3.5% 8.6% Consensus: 7.8% 28.6% 15.2% 9.5% 5.7% 15.2% 11.6% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##