* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 58 59 59 58 58 59 59 57 55 56 54 52 50 47 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 58 59 59 58 58 59 59 57 55 56 54 52 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 55 55 52 49 47 45 43 42 41 39 37 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 6 7 5 4 10 5 4 11 14 11 10 8 7 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 -1 -1 0 -7 -2 -2 -4 0 4 3 3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 60 85 151 180 215 211 276 237 15 84 86 74 61 126 222 239 213 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 140 138 137 137 137 134 130 132 137 135 135 135 133 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 63 63 63 61 60 58 55 54 54 61 61 58 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 14 15 13 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 31 41 35 25 18 5 0 5 28 53 70 52 26 13 31 200 MB DIV 1 0 9 16 21 45 72 60 21 0 3 -7 6 52 26 5 3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1752 1796 1840 1872 1905 1942 1966 1999 2073 2170 2284 2175 2073 1982 1894 1790 1703 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.2 15.9 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 126.9 127.4 127.9 128.3 129.0 129.7 130.3 131.2 132.2 133.3 134.6 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 9 9 10 16 22 19 10 12 15 12 12 15 13 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.1 126.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 40.1% 29.8% 20.3% 15.0% 28.8% 24.9% 16.4% Logistic: 21.8% 45.4% 26.6% 21.8% 4.2% 20.4% 7.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 28.9% 18.9% 14.1% 6.4% 16.4% 10.7% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##