* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 89 81 71 51 39 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 89 81 71 51 39 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 99 95 89 80 61 45 37 34 34 36 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 44 53 60 60 51 30 28 27 30 29 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 9 11 17 4 8 3 5 4 6 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 206 210 217 213 211 218 229 229 230 218 206 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.3 23.2 21.5 12.4 20.5 18.1 15.3 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 142 135 131 127 129 94 87 71 87 80 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 119 115 110 109 82 78 69 80 75 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -51.3 -50.0 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 -0.2 1.1 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 38 40 42 45 57 70 68 64 61 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 41 42 44 45 41 37 35 31 28 26 30 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 126 147 140 123 80 43 64 95 147 211 244 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 58 61 49 67 35 67 65 68 38 43 43 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -33 -32 -28 -9 14 12 8 5 -26 -91 -62 2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 764 852 963 930 883 701 540 512 449 882 1387 1169 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.8 33.6 34.8 35.9 38.5 40.7 42.2 43.4 44.7 47.0 50.2 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.8 67.1 65.5 64.0 62.5 60.4 58.7 55.7 49.8 42.1 34.4 26.8 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 16 14 13 18 26 28 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 24 13 15 13 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -27. -39. -49. -56. -63. -68. -72. -74. -75. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -14. -24. -32. -43. -44. -40. -36. -32. -27. -25. -21. -21. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -3. -6. -13. -18. -22. -17. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -19. -29. -49. -61. -69. -80. -88. -93. -88. -82. -85. -86. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.9 68.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 11( 31) 4( 33) 0( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 89 81 71 51 39 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 92 84 74 54 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 88 78 58 46 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 80 60 48 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 61 49 41 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 68 56 48 37 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 IN 12HR 100 96 89 80 74 70 58 50 39 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19