* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 55 58 63 71 78 83 83 78 70 68 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 55 58 63 71 78 83 83 78 70 68 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 55 58 63 70 78 87 90 85 76 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 16 15 16 11 11 12 14 17 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 9 10 5 5 -1 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 9 13 26 27 16 26 41 58 78 93 133 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.5 30.7 30.8 29.9 29.1 27.0 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 170 169 168 170 170 163 155 133 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 73 72 70 71 67 66 62 57 50 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 8 9 11 12 15 19 21 22 20 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 0 -4 7 32 35 70 70 76 51 48 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 58 47 83 84 55 29 31 35 21 36 10 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -9 -9 -8 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 244 176 125 100 83 47 66 146 256 119 78 68 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.9 24.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.2 103.7 104.1 104.6 105.3 106.1 107.1 108.3 109.6 110.9 112.1 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 36 39 44 46 39 35 21 12 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. 3. 8. 11. 12. 10. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 28. 33. 33. 28. 20. 18. 18. 19. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 102.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 35.3% 25.1% 18.8% 14.0% 23.5% 22.8% 26.3% Logistic: 5.1% 21.4% 8.4% 4.8% 0.8% 8.3% 4.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.0% 4.2% 5.2% 7.9% Consensus: 6.2% 23.4% 12.3% 8.1% 4.9% 12.0% 10.8% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##