* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 50 53 55 56 56 55 57 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 50 53 55 56 56 55 57 55 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 39 37 37 36 36 36 36 36 37 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 7 7 5 9 5 1 9 9 11 7 2 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 2 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -4 -4 3 0 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 156 175 194 169 192 203 208 199 141 75 99 86 98 143 164 189 204 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 141 140 136 135 136 137 135 130 132 137 137 138 135 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 63 63 62 62 59 57 53 54 55 64 68 65 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 18 17 18 18 18 17 18 16 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 24 30 41 29 31 20 7 0 23 35 58 51 24 -2 7 200 MB DIV 5 -2 7 10 23 32 46 49 46 7 4 14 26 27 34 20 48 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1655 1702 1749 1789 1829 1873 1904 1928 1970 2042 2155 2292 2169 2068 1992 1921 1846 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.2 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.1 126.6 127.1 127.6 128.4 129.0 129.6 130.2 131.0 132.1 133.4 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 9 9 7 9 14 21 22 10 12 15 15 16 17 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 3. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 12. 10. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 125.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 22.2% 20.9% 15.3% 11.4% 17.5% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 17.1% 7.4% 4.9% 0.9% 3.9% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 13.1% 9.4% 6.7% 4.1% 7.1% 5.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##