* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 53 58 59 59 58 62 68 73 75 76 75 74 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 53 58 59 59 58 62 68 73 75 76 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 52 57 59 58 57 58 63 69 72 72 67 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 14 20 27 24 19 8 10 14 28 35 43 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 1 -3 0 3 1 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 22 26 23 2 298 308 324 334 342 354 336 319 255 255 242 237 232 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 140 140 145 147 160 162 165 165 161 159 153 149 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 138 137 138 143 146 159 159 160 156 148 144 136 130 124 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 50 52 49 53 56 64 71 73 69 61 52 49 52 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 11 13 13 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 25 23 26 17 19 23 8 10 23 32 47 15 31 31 59 200 MB DIV 15 20 15 18 30 -3 27 -8 27 20 61 45 71 22 74 41 37 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -9 -3 -4 -7 0 -1 3 8 11 12 -6 LAND (KM) 1174 1156 1150 1144 1141 1067 914 728 425 242 313 337 524 756 908 859 845 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.7 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.2 48.1 49.2 50.3 52.9 55.8 58.8 61.8 64.7 67.2 69.4 70.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 47 50 36 29 28 43 52 73 88 78 55 65 48 24 21 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 23. 24. 24. 23. 27. 33. 38. 40. 41. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 46.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 TEN 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 25.1% 15.4% 8.4% 7.8% 10.5% 13.5% 14.1% Logistic: 19.1% 41.8% 41.8% 23.5% 7.1% 19.0% 9.2% 7.1% Bayesian: 4.9% 7.6% 28.4% 0.8% 0.7% 15.9% 19.6% 1.3% Consensus: 10.5% 24.8% 28.5% 10.9% 5.2% 15.2% 14.1% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 TEN 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 TEN 09/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 49 53 58 59 59 58 62 68 73 75 76 75 74 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 49 54 55 55 54 58 64 69 71 72 71 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 42 47 48 48 47 51 57 62 64 65 64 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 37 38 38 37 41 47 52 54 55 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT