* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 53 58 58 60 60 64 71 73 74 73 68 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 53 58 58 60 60 64 71 73 74 73 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 49 51 52 53 56 61 67 70 69 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 5 5 8 17 21 21 21 13 11 6 15 25 38 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 -3 -3 0 0 3 3 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 30 7 13 358 336 300 319 332 339 343 6 327 305 262 237 229 212 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 142 141 140 142 147 151 168 163 165 164 160 161 156 153 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 137 136 140 146 149 166 158 156 152 144 143 137 133 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 49 49 51 51 56 57 67 72 73 65 55 45 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 11 10 10 7 8 7 7 9 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 17 22 16 17 14 15 14 0 5 25 38 16 0 14 31 200 MB DIV 8 13 14 10 12 9 14 11 21 14 45 43 47 33 24 40 56 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -6 2 -5 -1 0 7 4 16 5 -20 LAND (KM) 1217 1198 1185 1174 1173 1158 984 864 560 309 248 319 376 509 672 862 875 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.7 21.8 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.1 46.9 47.9 48.9 51.4 54.2 57.3 60.4 63.1 65.6 67.7 69.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 14 15 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 42 49 39 28 37 40 64 75 91 73 53 64 50 35 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 28. 28. 30. 30. 34. 41. 43. 44. 43. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 TEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.6% 11.2% 7.7% 7.0% 9.9% 12.4% 14.3% Logistic: 12.0% 33.4% 28.2% 16.5% 7.1% 20.7% 14.4% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.6% 16.6% 12.0% 0.4% 0.3% 7.8% 12.8% 1.1% Consensus: 6.6% 22.5% 17.1% 8.2% 4.8% 12.8% 13.2% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 TEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 TEN 09/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 47 53 58 58 60 60 64 71 73 74 73 68 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 44 50 55 55 57 57 61 68 70 71 70 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 44 49 49 51 51 55 62 64 65 64 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 35 40 40 42 42 46 53 55 56 55 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT