* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 89 85 73 65 58 52 43 37 32 27 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 89 85 73 65 58 52 43 37 32 27 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 94 96 97 95 85 69 52 42 39 38 40 40 39 37 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 35 38 43 56 48 34 23 27 29 33 39 37 25 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 -1 5 12 12 2 8 3 4 3 0 7 15 2 6 SHEAR DIR 205 204 211 209 202 218 206 236 213 240 224 218 220 237 271 353 318 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.1 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.3 22.1 13.2 20.8 19.4 18.4 15.8 14.3 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 151 150 140 136 128 127 118 89 70 86 80 77 72 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 131 131 123 119 110 107 99 79 67 78 74 71 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -53.0 -53.4 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -52.0 -50.7 -50.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.5 1.4 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 42 39 38 41 49 53 59 66 65 54 40 45 39 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 37 39 43 44 41 37 34 34 33 31 27 23 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 52 70 83 92 120 140 95 59 36 50 116 169 161 153 204 207 197 200 MB DIV 66 86 87 81 73 23 65 58 86 92 61 63 73 22 2 -27 -24 700-850 TADV -8 -21 -18 -28 -34 -9 13 23 24 -11 -75 -151 -108 -121 70 75 37 LAND (KM) 545 593 656 727 813 954 849 734 633 511 488 828 1193 1519 1346 1089 888 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.5 32.1 32.6 34.3 36.5 38.7 40.5 42.1 43.4 44.2 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.9 71.8 70.6 69.1 67.7 64.4 61.5 59.3 56.8 53.6 49.0 43.1 37.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 15 16 15 14 14 16 20 21 20 17 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 37 30 23 16 13 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -20. -28. -35. -41. -46. -52. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -17. -28. -34. -34. -32. -28. -25. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 8. 4. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -5. -17. -25. -32. -38. -47. -53. -57. -63. -71. -78. -79. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.9 72.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 4( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 90 89 85 73 65 58 52 43 37 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 87 83 71 63 56 50 41 35 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 81 69 61 54 48 39 33 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 64 56 49 43 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 59 51 44 38 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 67 59 52 46 37 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 91 90 81 75 71 63 56 50 41 35 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS