* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 97 91 86 75 71 69 68 67 61 57 52 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 110 104 97 91 86 75 71 69 68 67 61 57 52 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 96 89 82 71 64 61 59 57 53 48 41 34 30 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 15 13 13 7 1 7 6 10 17 14 5 2 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -2 0 3 4 4 -1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 39 47 43 42 53 36 49 2 153 220 214 250 243 248 127 75 106 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 134 131 131 132 134 135 130 132 136 135 129 128 132 137 136 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 61 60 62 60 61 61 62 58 54 46 48 44 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 22 20 21 21 21 23 20 20 17 13 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 0 -5 -13 -7 0 16 22 29 17 17 -4 -17 -6 25 49 200 MB DIV 8 1 -11 -10 4 -14 -18 -15 24 15 23 -3 -25 -34 -29 -36 -39 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 -2 0 1 1 1 0 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1338 1379 1421 1460 1500 1559 1631 1704 1772 1851 1941 2017 2109 2215 2214 2137 2058 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.3 122.9 123.4 123.9 124.4 125.2 126.1 127.0 128.0 129.1 130.2 131.2 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 5 5 4 5 6 6 4 7 15 14 9 9 15 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -29. -36. -41. -45. -48. -49. -51. -52. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -6. -1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -24. -35. -39. -41. -42. -43. -49. -53. -58. -62. -61. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.2 122.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##