* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 74 77 78 82 83 87 83 75 64 54 48 39 31 26 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 74 77 78 82 83 87 83 75 64 54 48 39 31 26 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 75 77 82 86 87 87 79 63 48 39 35 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 16 19 25 27 35 48 54 51 29 39 38 51 33 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -6 1 0 1 -1 0 4 8 12 4 -2 -6 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 259 260 263 240 225 232 212 210 207 217 219 245 256 264 258 287 308 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 29.0 28.9 28.0 27.6 26.5 24.8 25.5 21.7 21.4 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 136 136 138 138 153 152 139 134 120 104 110 86 85 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 113 114 117 118 133 134 122 116 103 89 92 75 74 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -53.0 -53.7 -54.7 -55.6 -57.3 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 57 54 50 48 44 41 43 47 45 47 54 45 44 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 23 26 27 32 34 39 41 41 37 34 34 32 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -16 -5 8 19 28 60 98 118 95 60 -15 -5 -58 -52 -71 -117 200 MB DIV 31 32 36 30 19 35 51 71 65 47 20 44 29 43 1 -26 -47 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 0 -3 -1 -15 -20 -49 -38 -10 33 24 28 -3 -19 47 LAND (KM) 290 331 372 428 457 512 580 700 865 1001 923 823 762 637 602 646 767 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.7 31.3 32.4 34.1 36.1 38.3 39.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.5 77.1 76.6 76.0 74.5 72.6 70.2 67.2 63.8 60.6 57.6 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 7 10 12 15 16 16 15 13 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 40 33 30 26 22 18 29 32 18 13 3 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -26. -28. -32. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 20. 23. 22. 15. 10. 9. 6. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 17. 18. 22. 18. 10. -1. -11. -17. -26. -34. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.3 77.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 19.7% 12.3% 9.5% 8.1% 9.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 16.0% 11.2% 2.9% 0.7% 2.2% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 12.2% 8.0% 4.3% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 6( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 72 74 77 78 82 83 87 83 75 64 54 48 39 31 26 18HR AGO 65 64 67 69 72 73 77 78 82 78 70 59 49 43 34 26 21 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 66 67 71 72 76 72 64 53 43 37 28 20 15 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 59 63 64 68 64 56 45 35 29 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT