* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 66 69 74 77 77 77 74 68 53 43 33 30 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 66 69 74 77 77 77 74 68 53 43 33 30 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 65 67 73 77 78 77 73 61 44 33 29 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 22 20 17 28 28 38 46 63 63 48 39 41 49 45 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -4 -4 1 -2 0 -2 0 7 1 6 0 -3 -7 5 SHEAR DIR 264 260 258 259 233 233 219 225 209 222 222 238 241 267 257 281 312 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.7 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.1 23.1 23.6 17.5 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 135 136 140 138 148 155 142 134 126 116 93 96 73 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 114 113 113 117 118 129 136 124 116 107 97 80 82 67 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -56.3 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 56 49 48 42 41 39 42 43 46 52 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 23 26 28 30 32 35 38 31 27 26 28 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -13 -3 8 16 47 78 100 83 54 -11 -43 -14 -35 -19 -43 200 MB DIV 31 38 36 30 31 24 46 45 68 30 36 8 48 29 30 -16 -46 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 2 0 -2 -9 -13 -41 -47 -35 18 32 29 10 -31 -36 LAND (KM) 266 295 328 376 405 442 508 618 790 977 926 833 750 656 570 589 695 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.6 30.9 31.4 32.4 33.9 35.7 37.9 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.8 77.6 77.1 76.7 75.4 73.6 71.2 68.1 64.8 61.7 58.8 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 7 9 12 15 16 16 15 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 41 33 31 27 17 24 31 18 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -21. -29. -34. -37. -42. -46. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 17. 21. 11. 5. 1. 3. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 22. 22. 22. 19. 13. -2. -12. -22. -25. -35. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.1 78.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.5% 11.1% 8.2% 7.3% 9.2% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 17.4% 12.7% 6.0% 1.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 11.8% 8.1% 4.9% 3.0% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 66 69 74 77 77 77 74 68 53 43 33 30 20 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 61 64 69 72 72 72 69 63 48 38 28 25 15 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 63 66 66 66 63 57 42 32 22 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 53 56 56 56 53 47 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT