* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 109 103 96 82 71 62 57 56 50 43 38 32 28 24 23 V (KT) LAND 105 110 109 103 96 82 71 62 57 56 50 43 38 32 28 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 105 110 107 100 93 78 67 60 55 50 46 41 34 28 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 18 17 16 12 11 6 4 6 13 21 29 29 39 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 2 2 0 0 4 3 4 5 5 0 2 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 30 19 27 51 62 33 34 31 262 256 229 232 233 237 246 248 266 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.8 26.3 26.4 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 136 136 136 130 128 129 127 123 120 124 130 125 126 136 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 61 61 58 59 56 55 56 55 52 45 41 42 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 21 20 19 18 18 19 17 15 15 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 21 14 6 1 3 -6 18 26 22 20 32 20 19 -3 14 200 MB DIV 18 4 -15 -7 -7 -20 -15 -20 0 7 11 29 15 34 22 0 -11 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 0 1 4 7 4 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1216 1259 1305 1341 1380 1452 1504 1552 1596 1658 1739 1838 1949 2063 2172 2057 1898 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.1 121.7 122.3 122.9 124.0 124.9 125.8 126.6 127.5 128.6 129.8 131.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 7 7 7 4 3 4 2 0 0 1 6 1 2 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -19. -26. -32. -38. -43. -46. -47. -49. -51. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -3. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 4. -2. -9. -23. -34. -43. -48. -49. -55. -62. -67. -73. -77. -81. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.9 120.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 537.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 -1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 18.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 2.9% 2.5% 0.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 7.3% 4.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##