* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 83 83 81 73 66 62 56 51 45 40 34 27 21 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 83 83 81 73 66 62 56 51 45 40 34 27 21 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 85 83 74 64 57 50 43 37 31 25 20 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 12 14 15 12 9 8 7 14 18 26 35 47 43 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 3 5 0 1 6 9 9 9 9 4 2 9 0 0 SHEAR DIR 73 44 27 29 28 47 15 330 310 274 271 265 240 250 253 258 252 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.2 26.2 26.5 26.1 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 132 134 134 124 127 123 116 117 121 122 127 128 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 61 60 62 59 60 56 51 45 39 41 42 44 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 23 21 20 21 20 19 18 17 15 13 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 29 20 13 21 11 20 13 36 36 46 49 56 35 41 27 200 MB DIV 63 46 12 -11 -8 -2 -18 3 -6 -1 21 20 15 4 24 34 13 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -8 -7 -6 0 -1 -1 1 1 5 5 5 4 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1102 1141 1183 1221 1261 1334 1389 1435 1490 1574 1674 1795 1943 2105 1933 1725 1516 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.8 120.5 121.2 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.4 127.7 129.1 130.6 132.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 6 4 6 6 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 8. 6. -2. -9. -13. -19. -24. -29. -35. -41. -48. -54. -59. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 119.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.4% 24.9% 24.9% 20.2% 14.5% 16.3% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 1.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.8% 10.1% 10.1% 7.1% 5.4% 5.5% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##