* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/14/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 59 65 73 76 82 86 88 89 86 81 77 76 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 59 65 73 76 82 86 88 89 86 81 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 51 58 66 72 78 83 87 88 84 76 71 67 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 8 7 11 12 9 16 17 25 22 31 30 34 24 27 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 0 -4 1 0 0 1 0 1 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 262 272 207 233 272 251 250 231 234 223 224 214 216 212 220 211 228 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.2 28.4 28.7 28.0 27.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 139 138 141 139 137 140 145 148 155 142 147 137 136 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 126 120 117 118 116 115 118 123 126 131 119 123 115 113 93 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 51 54 57 57 55 61 56 52 48 48 47 49 46 40 30 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 20 21 24 26 30 34 37 41 43 42 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 23 16 -18 2 -10 3 4 32 73 83 88 74 34 41 45 200 MB DIV 14 10 29 39 6 26 14 36 16 18 46 85 64 65 34 63 39 700-850 TADV 1 3 6 5 6 4 3 1 -1 -4 -6 -16 -9 -15 -5 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 442 370 303 274 258 269 345 398 455 534 649 789 901 925 852 696 584 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.1 29.2 30.0 30.6 31.0 31.1 31.5 32.0 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.4 77.0 77.4 77.8 78.0 77.5 76.3 74.6 72.8 70.7 68.4 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 62 47 40 35 38 45 37 31 25 21 29 31 24 24 30 34 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 18. 23. 26. 31. 30. 28. 25. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 30. 38. 41. 47. 51. 53. 54. 51. 46. 42. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.9 75.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.2% 10.1% 7.1% 6.0% 9.0% 11.7% 12.0% Logistic: 1.7% 8.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 4.7% 6.7% 9.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.1% 4.6% 2.8% 2.1% 4.6% 6.1% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 48 51 59 65 73 76 82 86 88 89 86 81 77 76 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 46 54 60 68 71 77 81 83 84 81 76 72 71 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 47 53 61 64 70 74 76 77 74 69 65 64 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 36 42 50 53 59 63 65 66 63 58 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT