* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 48 51 54 56 56 55 52 48 47 42 38 33 27 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 51 54 56 56 55 52 48 47 42 38 33 27 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 48 50 50 47 43 38 35 31 27 23 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 6 4 10 13 8 9 13 13 20 25 31 48 55 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -3 -5 -2 2 5 7 3 6 5 1 8 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 71 92 115 110 88 356 29 2 302 304 276 284 270 249 225 233 232 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.2 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 136 136 132 128 124 124 128 121 115 117 120 125 121 119 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 65 62 59 56 55 54 49 46 40 36 35 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 21 21 21 21 22 21 19 19 17 16 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 44 49 52 44 45 44 27 14 8 35 26 39 48 63 32 32 200 MB DIV 40 54 64 63 39 -12 -11 -20 2 5 34 -4 -9 12 28 30 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 3 0 1 5 3 1 2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 886 932 981 1007 1037 1113 1199 1278 1329 1390 1459 1541 1674 1846 1983 2069 1924 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.1 118.8 120.3 121.8 123.2 124.4 125.6 126.8 128.0 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 9 5 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 12. 8. 7. 2. -2. -7. -13. -22. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 25.4% 23.5% 17.7% 12.6% 18.5% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 24.4% 17.5% 5.1% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 16.7% 13.7% 7.6% 6.9% 6.9% 5.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##