* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 44 46 51 52 52 51 50 50 47 43 40 36 31 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 44 46 51 52 52 51 50 50 47 43 40 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 37 38 38 37 35 34 33 30 27 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 12 7 2 8 11 5 10 11 10 15 15 20 27 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 4 1 5 5 2 4 3 7 SHEAR DIR 248 7 67 64 66 129 5 42 335 310 301 250 291 275 255 243 233 SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.5 26.2 25.9 26.4 26.2 25.5 25.2 25.6 25.8 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 140 140 135 134 128 124 121 126 124 116 114 119 120 125 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 68 68 65 59 56 55 55 55 53 47 39 34 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 19 19 21 20 22 21 20 20 19 19 17 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 26 31 38 32 42 49 46 33 18 18 28 18 44 38 44 39 200 MB DIV 53 45 25 33 37 21 17 -3 -8 9 -3 29 0 0 0 15 26 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -4 1 -1 0 3 4 1 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 796 828 869 921 964 1024 1116 1210 1270 1320 1379 1451 1576 1747 1903 2020 2038 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.9 115.7 116.6 117.5 119.1 120.8 122.3 123.7 124.9 126.0 127.1 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 8 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 8 7 6 7 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 15. 12. 8. 5. 1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.2% 19.2% 14.1% 9.8% 16.1% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.9% 7.3% 4.9% 3.4% 5.6% 5.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##