* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 48 50 54 52 52 52 52 50 47 43 36 29 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 48 50 54 52 52 52 52 50 47 43 36 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 37 35 34 34 33 30 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 7 2 6 10 2 9 14 12 19 18 25 34 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 1 1 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 206 246 300 60 49 16 342 24 33 287 288 278 281 282 274 253 255 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.8 26.4 26.1 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 142 139 137 129 128 122 120 126 123 116 114 117 121 126 119 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 67 68 66 62 55 57 53 54 51 46 42 38 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 19 19 18 20 18 18 19 19 19 17 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 27 36 37 36 52 46 49 38 45 51 57 49 51 32 12 200 MB DIV 66 53 44 34 17 30 6 -7 4 -11 -2 20 5 -8 -5 7 -6 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 2 -5 -3 3 0 1 4 2 3 1 0 -5 LAND (KM) 761 782 814 852 898 967 1053 1171 1240 1305 1374 1471 1597 1745 1911 2022 1976 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 20.9 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.0 114.9 115.7 116.6 118.4 120.2 122.0 123.5 124.9 126.1 127.4 128.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 17. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 6. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 19. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. 12. 8. 1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 23.6% 22.1% 16.5% 11.8% 18.2% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.4% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 10.0% 8.5% 5.8% 4.0% 6.4% 5.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##