* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 38 44 52 56 57 55 54 53 53 53 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 38 44 35 31 34 32 31 30 30 30 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 29 28 32 34 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 11 17 19 10 12 10 15 23 32 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 0 0 -4 0 -1 2 -3 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 253 221 227 248 211 238 204 216 206 222 232 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 158 158 160 163 154 149 150 148 144 138 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 140 140 140 142 132 125 123 121 117 113 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 6 7 6 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 54 53 52 59 57 59 54 53 46 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 20 18 -4 7 -25 -6 -38 -11 -5 20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 12 10 21 0 19 18 26 38 16 1 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 9 3 8 3 0 -5 -2 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 373 386 391 305 220 84 17 -20 -11 21 54 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.2 27.2 28.3 29.4 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.6 76.3 77.1 77.9 79.3 80.5 81.3 81.5 81.3 80.8 80.1 79.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 5 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 92 80 82 69 63 66 47 39 40 38 27 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 13. 19. 27. 31. 32. 30. 29. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.3 74.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.8% 7.8% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 8.3% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 3.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.9% 6.1% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 38 44 35 31 34 32 31 30 30 30 31 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 36 42 33 29 32 30 29 28 28 28 29 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 31 37 28 24 27 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 29 20 16 19 17 16 15 15 15 16 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT