* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/09/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 41 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 41 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 39 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 33 41 47 65 82 72 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 3 4 6 6 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 196 200 208 213 221 229 243 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 24.9 24.1 22.1 19.0 16.4 14.8 13.4 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 108 102 91 81 77 76 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 94 90 82 76 73 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.4 -51.8 -49.5 -46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 36 33 32 35 47 50 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 14 15 11 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -32 -49 -47 -69 -73 -69 -23 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 31 27 51 58 47 19 29 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -33 -26 -43 -44 -28 -78 -104 -90 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 911 915 961 1074 1204 1493 790 237 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.1 41.4 42.6 44.0 45.4 48.7 52.5 56.2 59.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 44.4 42.4 39.9 37.4 30.7 21.9 11.3 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 21 23 26 31 35 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -8. -22. -34. -43. -54. -64. -75. -89. -98.-102.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -7. -14. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -26. -49. -69. -75. -84. -92.-102.-115.-122.-124.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.1 46.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 44 41 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 40 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 38 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT