* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/09/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 46 40 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 46 40 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 43 38 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 25 30 40 53 74 77 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 1 4 7 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 190 190 193 204 215 220 235 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 25.9 25.1 24.2 23.4 18.2 16.0 14.8 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 116 109 103 98 80 77 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 100 95 90 87 75 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -52.6 -51.3 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 -1.1 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 37 34 33 42 46 49 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -19 -30 -42 -42 -76 -62 -70 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 37 26 34 57 52 26 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -22 -25 -18 -37 -35 -52 -47 -96 -95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1016 951 919 965 1050 1368 1217 518 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.7 41.0 42.3 43.5 46.5 50.0 53.8 57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.9 46.3 44.8 42.6 40.5 34.8 27.4 17.9 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 20 23 28 33 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -20. -32. -39. -48. -56. -65. -77. -84. -88. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -22. -45. -65. -69. -76. -82. -91.-103.-108.-110.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.4 47.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 7.7% 5.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 47 46 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 46 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT