* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 52 52 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 52 52 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 47 47 45 40 33 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 22 21 19 18 25 37 47 65 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 106 124 146 162 191 190 209 234 245 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.9 26.7 24.5 20.9 17.7 16.1 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 152 139 137 124 106 88 79 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 134 128 118 117 108 94 81 75 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 44 42 44 38 29 31 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 16 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -27 -37 -36 -31 -49 -34 -50 -90 -97 -77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -6 -4 16 39 28 46 8 13 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -14 -16 -2 -9 -20 -26 -43 -36 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1727 1615 1506 1374 1244 997 965 1262 1504 819 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.7 33.5 34.7 35.9 38.8 41.7 44.3 47.1 50.1 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.4 48.3 49.1 49.1 49.2 47.3 43.2 37.2 29.7 21.6 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 14 19 23 28 30 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 15 14 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 399 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -16. -28. -33. -39. -46. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -15. -22. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 1. -11. -21. -34. -35. -40. -47. -50. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.8 47.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.32 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 3.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 2.8% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 50 52 52 46 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 50 50 44 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 46 46 40 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 38 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT