* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 53 54 55 48 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 53 54 55 48 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 46 40 33 28 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 17 20 21 19 31 50 70 84 65 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -1 0 0 -2 2 5 3 -2 1 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 99 104 110 124 170 199 196 216 235 238 240 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.3 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.6 26.1 24.3 19.2 15.7 14.5 12.9 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 158 152 139 132 117 104 82 76 75 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 136 130 117 112 101 92 76 73 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -51.3 -48.6 -45.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 41 42 44 45 36 29 33 44 60 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 18 18 18 20 17 9 6 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -25 -21 -37 -40 -52 -52 -27 -20 -49 -16 39 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -6 0 -5 -9 50 32 50 17 23 30 45 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -4 -11 -2 -10 -26 -37 -72 -86 -79 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1904 1788 1676 1555 1436 1183 955 918 1170 1513 864 415 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.8 32.5 33.4 34.3 36.6 39.4 42.2 45.3 48.9 52.8 57.1 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.3 46.5 47.4 48.3 48.6 46.9 43.4 37.9 31.1 23.0 13.8 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 12 11 13 17 22 27 31 33 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 19 18 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -15. -28. -39. -46. -55. -61. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -7. -18. -24. -25. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 3. -12. -26. -36. -42. -52. -57. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.1 44.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.40 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.0% 7.2% 5.2% 4.5% 6.9% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 9.9% 6.8% 3.2% 2.1% 5.5% 3.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 48 49 53 54 55 48 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 52 53 54 47 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 48 49 50 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 41 42 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT