* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 61 53 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 68 54 50 42 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 63 53 46 34 26 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 52 59 62 55 51 52 61 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 6 4 2 2 2 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 212 206 202 198 207 213 229 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.7 18.7 18.4 17.9 15.2 9.3 11.4 9.8 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 80 79 77 73 68 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 75 73 72 69 67 68 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.6 -48.7 -47.9 -47.5 -48.0 -48.8 -48.5 -47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 50 51 49 53 53 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 46 48 47 45 33 27 22 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 139 175 186 193 201 194 175 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 142 157 150 108 67 81 58 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 39 -3 -6 -13 -59 -75 -64 -65 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 270 78 -24 28 57 71 520 1070 1471 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 42.9 44.9 46.7 48.5 51.3 53.8 56.3 58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.9 65.0 63.1 61.3 59.5 54.6 48.1 40.1 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 24 23 22 21 22 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -24. -31. -39. -46. -50. -54. -57. -61. -62. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -22. -29. -36. -41. -44. -48. -54. -60. -68. -73. -77. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. -9. -18. -28. -36. -38. -40. -41. -41. -39. -38. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -30. -51. -73. -93.-111.-117.-125.-133.-143.-157.-166.-173.-179. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 40.9 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.9 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 54 50 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 60 56 48 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 59 42 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 57 40 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT