* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 44 47 55 61 66 70 70 67 44 32 36 34 34 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 44 47 55 61 66 70 70 67 44 32 36 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 43 46 51 55 59 59 57 51 42 40 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 28 13 6 5 12 13 6 9 18 29 49 65 71 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 -2 8 8 11 9 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 210 223 90 79 85 130 185 202 202 211 215 222 231 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 29.4 28.2 27.6 26.2 25.0 20.4 17.3 14.1 13.0 9.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 157 149 141 159 139 132 118 109 85 79 75 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 141 132 123 135 117 111 101 95 79 75 73 72 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -51.3 -48.5 -46.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -1.1 0.8 1.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 44 44 41 42 44 47 45 38 38 45 51 59 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 21 22 22 24 25 27 19 22 33 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 29 14 0 -22 -19 -41 -55 -25 -30 -21 17 34 79 169 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -20 -25 -19 -24 4 -9 45 39 39 97 77 50 55 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 8 0 1 -1 -2 -7 2 -4 -15 -26 -92 -94 -78 -60 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2320 2321 2166 2030 1897 1678 1473 1255 1085 1040 1190 1538 947 484 467 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.4 29.4 30.2 31.0 32.4 34.0 36.1 38.5 41.0 44.1 47.9 52.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.4 41.7 43.1 44.5 46.8 48.1 47.9 45.9 42.8 38.3 32.2 24.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 12 16 20 25 31 36 36 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 19 16 12 21 13 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -15. -29. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. -5. -3. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 15. 21. 26. 30. 30. 27. 4. -8. -4. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.4 39.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.4% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 0.9% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 44 47 55 61 66 70 70 67 44 32 36 34 34 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 45 53 59 64 68 68 65 42 30 34 32 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 41 49 55 60 64 64 61 38 26 30 28 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 41 47 52 56 56 53 30 18 22 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT