* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 37 40 46 51 56 59 64 68 64 54 39 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 37 40 46 51 56 59 64 68 64 54 39 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 29 31 36 41 45 50 53 51 45 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 36 35 28 14 4 7 8 6 12 18 25 39 69 78 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -1 1 1 1 8 17 9 15 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 214 213 217 210 76 72 112 210 193 217 215 211 213 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.2 29.1 28.4 29.3 28.4 27.6 27.1 25.5 22.3 17.9 15.5 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 133 140 141 155 143 157 142 132 127 112 93 79 75 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 127 128 139 126 134 119 110 107 98 84 74 72 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -51.9 -50.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 44 45 42 42 42 44 44 45 48 49 43 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 19 18 20 20 22 22 24 28 31 32 32 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 17 20 18 -16 -31 -46 -52 -28 -29 -21 -5 11 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 4 3 -24 -25 -31 -5 -5 35 36 48 97 101 55 45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 19 15 5 2 0 -5 -7 -1 -2 4 -7 -9 -127 -124 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2084 2196 2311 2376 2225 1966 1738 1529 1333 1168 1059 1131 1428 1169 619 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 30.5 32.0 33.6 35.5 37.6 40.2 43.2 46.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.1 38.1 39.1 40.3 41.5 44.0 46.2 47.6 47.4 46.0 43.5 39.6 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 13 11 9 11 14 19 24 28 29 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 12 14 13 19 15 19 13 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -7. -18. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 29. 33. 29. 19. 4. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.9 37.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 35 37 40 46 51 56 59 64 68 64 54 39 37 38 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 40 46 51 56 59 64 68 64 54 39 37 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 43 48 53 56 61 65 61 51 36 34 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 36 41 46 49 54 58 54 44 29 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT