* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 76 75 74 70 63 45 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 76 75 74 70 55 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 74 75 75 68 50 33 28 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 26 35 46 63 47 43 48 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 7 12 7 12 2 2 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 238 221 215 226 212 210 197 216 220 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.1 26.0 20.6 18.7 14.4 9.5 10.1 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 138 129 118 86 80 72 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 121 114 105 79 74 69 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -48.1 -48.4 -48.4 -48.7 -48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 42 46 50 47 53 52 57 58 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 37 39 41 46 49 43 31 27 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 55 48 63 164 198 197 238 230 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 71 91 94 117 136 131 82 102 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 3 11 13 13 12 34 -81 -74 -47 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 66 158 294 306 133 10 -19 314 836 1353 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.1 36.0 37.4 38.7 42.3 46.4 50.3 53.5 56.1 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.9 75.5 74.0 72.0 70.0 65.5 61.4 57.2 51.2 43.9 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 18 21 23 25 25 24 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 9 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -29. -37. -42. -46. -49. -53. -54. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -24. -28. -29. -30. -34. -37. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 7. -8. -14. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -5. -6. -10. -17. -35. -59. -70. -81. -86. -92.-101.-107.-112.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.1 76.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.1% 5.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 76 75 74 70 55 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 78 77 73 58 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 70 55 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 65 50 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT