* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 82 80 73 66 52 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 82 80 73 66 48 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 83 82 82 78 63 47 34 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 23 27 43 53 66 49 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 7 11 5 12 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 225 232 220 217 221 203 198 195 205 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 28.1 27.4 25.1 18.4 15.7 8.7 10.9 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 141 132 110 79 74 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 113 123 117 99 74 70 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -47.9 -47.6 -47.4 -47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 3.3 3.3 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 5 3 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 42 43 46 50 51 51 52 55 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 34 35 36 38 41 47 46 40 33 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 71 71 48 42 111 192 223 218 247 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 38 74 94 87 103 164 90 85 63 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 2 7 4 12 12 -31 -73 -25 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 57 54 56 170 281 225 56 13 86 510 972 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.3 35.1 36.2 37.3 40.3 44.0 48.0 51.4 54.4 57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.9 76.8 75.6 73.9 72.2 68.0 63.7 59.4 54.3 48.4 42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 18 20 24 24 24 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 12 7 20 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -15. -25. -35. -45. -52. -56. -59. -63. -64. -66. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -26. -30. -29. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 8. -0. -10. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -10. -17. -24. -38. -57. -71. -85. -89. -94.-100.-104.-108.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.4 77.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 637.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 7( 26) 4( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 84 82 80 73 66 48 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 87 85 83 76 69 51 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 75 68 50 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 71 64 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 57 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 64 57 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 86 84 75 69 65 58 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS