* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 75 73 67 57 48 40 34 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 75 73 67 57 48 40 34 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 68 63 53 44 37 33 29 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 1 0 3 4 2 6 5 9 15 25 38 42 49 45 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 -4 0 4 4 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 246 223 300 221 304 339 325 274 291 239 250 236 245 258 273 286 286 SST (C) 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.8 24.6 23.5 23.6 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 111 111 109 97 98 105 107 106 105 107 112 115 118 122 122 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 46 44 43 39 34 33 34 34 35 34 32 30 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 21 22 20 18 15 13 12 9 9 7 5 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 16 9 -8 -24 -28 -27 -28 -46 -43 -34 -15 -5 -16 -6 0 200 MB DIV -8 -9 -11 -33 -41 -28 -19 -18 -11 5 36 14 1 27 -9 -12 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -4 4 2 5 1 4 4 0 0 -7 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 894 934 946 974 1014 1144 1308 1477 1603 1708 1819 1927 1940 1777 1635 1517 1389 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.5 121.3 122.3 123.2 125.2 127.2 129.0 130.7 132.2 133.6 134.9 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. -40. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. -3. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -24. -23. -22. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -7. -13. -23. -32. -40. -46. -50. -53. -58. -62. -66. -72. -77. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.4 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.5 18.9 to 1.4 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 684.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.9% 2.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 6.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##