* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 74 71 65 57 49 43 36 32 30 29 27 24 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 74 71 65 57 49 43 36 32 30 29 27 24 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 72 67 63 55 48 42 36 31 27 25 23 21 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 1 2 4 3 0 4 3 4 6 9 9 19 28 36 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 2 2 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 1 4 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 260 286 165 144 203 318 339 349 332 306 298 248 246 266 279 289 296 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.1 24.7 23.8 23.8 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 130 124 114 110 100 100 107 106 103 107 113 117 120 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 53 50 45 42 39 36 34 33 35 36 33 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 24 25 24 23 20 19 16 14 12 10 10 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 38 44 45 35 19 -8 -26 -23 -21 -25 -39 -32 -14 -15 -24 -30 200 MB DIV 1 -7 -6 -12 -7 -5 -31 -42 -20 -16 -7 -7 10 -3 -5 -3 -3 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 0 -4 1 -5 3 -1 5 5 8 10 6 4 0 3 LAND (KM) 767 787 815 852 897 958 1053 1196 1368 1546 1680 1812 1955 1833 1674 1551 1429 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.6 22.4 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.6 118.3 119.1 119.9 121.6 123.6 125.6 127.6 129.5 131.5 133.5 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 6. 2. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -20. -28. -36. -42. -49. -53. -55. -56. -58. -61. -67. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.3 116.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 590.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.25 -0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 19.4% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##