* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 41 42 41 45 47 47 48 47 46 42 37 27 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 43 41 42 41 45 47 47 48 47 46 42 37 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 43 40 38 36 35 34 36 38 41 42 42 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 15 18 20 24 27 28 11 6 13 19 17 24 44 63 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 1 0 4 2 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 211 193 204 209 212 217 205 217 207 119 124 179 210 215 227 232 233 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 27.1 28.0 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.8 24.8 23.7 19.2 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 118 118 119 119 126 138 151 139 136 131 122 105 99 81 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 106 106 106 108 114 124 135 121 117 110 103 91 87 74 69 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -55.4 -55.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 43 42 40 40 38 40 38 38 44 49 56 57 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 17 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 10 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 52 45 36 25 11 9 7 -37 -69 -73 -68 -52 -49 -33 -10 200 MB DIV 39 48 47 20 6 15 0 -12 -26 -28 -30 7 50 78 65 68 56 700-850 TADV 5 7 11 12 13 17 14 7 1 3 -4 2 1 12 22 41 39 LAND (KM) 1729 1776 1825 1875 1926 2045 2194 2378 2231 1950 1686 1437 1216 1034 952 1072 1301 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.0 23.2 24.8 26.8 28.8 30.9 32.9 34.9 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.1 34.6 35.1 35.6 36.8 38.2 39.8 41.6 43.3 44.9 46.1 46.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 9 11 13 13 12 12 11 11 15 20 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 6 4 3 2 7 12 16 11 11 6 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -14. -21. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 1. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 2. -3. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 33.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.5% 7.9% 5.3% 4.3% 6.5% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.6% 3.1% 1.9% 1.4% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 43 43 41 42 41 45 47 47 48 47 46 42 37 27 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 38 39 38 42 44 44 45 44 43 39 34 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 34 35 34 38 40 40 41 40 39 35 30 20 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 29 28 32 34 34 35 34 33 29 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT