* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 90 88 84 81 82 84 80 70 51 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 90 88 84 81 82 84 80 65 38 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 90 90 88 83 80 83 82 64 49 35 30 29 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 20 17 9 17 30 44 49 65 52 45 45 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -3 0 -3 3 1 10 5 3 1 3 4 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 172 144 149 162 163 181 257 215 227 211 208 210 220 226 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.0 27.5 27.8 26.4 18.3 14.4 9.6 10.8 9.7 10.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 157 153 147 137 132 137 122 79 73 70 70 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 131 127 122 116 115 121 109 74 70 68 68 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.3 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -49.3 -48.6 -48.6 -48.6 -48.5 -48.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 8 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 40 39 38 43 46 51 52 51 54 53 58 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 36 37 35 33 33 38 44 48 48 42 33 26 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 3 12 7 26 46 84 60 86 117 156 182 230 241 194 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 67 59 39 51 44 52 78 105 96 68 71 57 42 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 0 1 0 0 -4 4 -1 3 -7 -33 -65 -29 -53 -25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 136 145 142 129 95 57 12 261 238 108 42 183 667 1205 1374 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.3 31.8 33.1 34.8 36.9 39.9 43.4 47.2 51.3 54.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.8 80.0 79.8 79.7 78.6 76.3 72.8 68.4 63.8 58.7 52.9 46.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 10 16 20 24 25 27 27 25 25 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 60 51 39 30 20 10 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -26. -33. -39. -45. -51. -56. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -26. -28. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -1. 7. 11. 11. 1. -12. -21. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -8. -6. -9. -20. -39. -60. -78. -91. -95.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.5 79.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 734.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.0% 7.9% 5.7% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 4.4% 3.4% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 11( 31) 9( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 90 88 84 81 82 84 80 65 38 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 89 87 83 80 81 83 79 64 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 84 80 77 78 80 76 61 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 74 71 72 74 70 55 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 67 64 65 67 63 48 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 68 65 66 68 64 49 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 68 69 71 67 52 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS