* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 87 84 81 74 66 56 49 41 37 33 31 29 26 21 17 V (KT) LAND 95 90 87 84 81 74 66 56 49 41 37 33 31 29 26 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 78 73 64 55 47 40 34 30 26 24 22 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 2 3 5 1 2 8 3 3 9 11 18 27 34 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 1 4 0 0 -1 4 -3 -2 -1 3 6 2 2 SHEAR DIR 269 257 277 165 158 124 285 346 338 319 259 282 251 260 265 272 289 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.8 25.5 25.0 24.2 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.9 25.2 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 131 118 113 105 99 104 107 104 105 111 114 117 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 57 53 51 46 43 38 35 33 31 33 34 34 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 25 24 22 19 17 15 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 24 32 42 42 37 15 -13 -18 -21 -18 -39 -28 -26 -22 -36 -52 200 MB DIV 16 1 -10 -3 7 -2 -12 -35 -27 -32 -21 -11 0 -4 -10 1 -19 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 0 -5 -4 -1 0 4 5 8 11 9 6 6 8 LAND (KM) 764 776 796 826 865 968 1032 1160 1317 1485 1612 1734 1873 1938 1766 1636 1516 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.8 117.5 118.3 119.1 121.0 122.9 125.0 127.0 128.9 130.7 132.6 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -45. -47. -50. -53. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -21. -29. -39. -46. -54. -58. -62. -64. -66. -69. -74. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 635.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 -0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 17.2% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##