* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL072019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 49 48 46 44 44 47 48 49 50 50 50 51 54 55 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 54 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 13 7 11 10 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 2 4 -2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 82 81 94 102 44 343 341 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.2 29.5 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 158 146 139 139 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 158 150 138 127 121 121 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 11 13 10 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 67 67 66 65 63 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 13 11 -2 -17 -15 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 16 34 30 43 4 29 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 -1 0 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 164 112 61 10 -41 -132 -258 -380 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.4 25.2 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.7 97.2 97.7 98.2 99.1 100.2 101.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 73 55 35 23 14 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.2 96.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 16.1% 15.8% Logistic: 11.8% 23.1% 15.5% 8.7% 3.1% 13.3% 20.4% 17.4% Bayesian: 10.8% 18.7% 5.2% 0.1% 0.5% 10.6% 3.9% 41.6% Consensus: 7.5% 20.2% 10.8% 2.9% 1.2% 11.2% 13.5% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 35 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT