* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 100 101 101 98 94 89 87 86 81 76 60 35 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 96 100 101 101 98 94 89 87 86 81 65 44 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 96 98 100 100 98 91 85 85 76 62 50 37 32 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 13 17 16 10 19 37 49 55 67 69 62 53 36 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 4 4 9 1 4 0 1 3 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 238 230 175 141 155 174 181 240 217 227 212 219 217 223 229 233 220 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.0 27.6 26.9 23.1 18.2 15.7 9.7 11.1 9.3 11.2 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 164 161 153 137 134 127 97 79 75 69 70 69 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 136 138 134 128 117 117 112 88 74 71 68 68 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -49.3 -48.7 -47.5 -46.1 -45.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.6 1.9 2.6 3.2 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 10 7 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 50 47 41 40 44 47 50 49 50 48 48 52 60 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 37 36 36 35 34 33 36 41 45 48 45 35 33 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 22 -4 -8 4 13 23 52 74 60 80 121 157 165 231 266 244 262 200 MB DIV 48 22 48 68 61 60 55 53 81 92 105 94 60 79 48 22 -38 700-850 TADV 2 11 10 -1 0 0 -5 8 -15 -11 -2 -11 -134 -73 -46 -8 -20 LAND (KM) 164 154 150 165 170 103 54 69 332 275 85 -32 293 806 1368 1188 792 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.7 32.0 33.5 35.3 37.6 40.6 44.1 47.9 51.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.1 79.4 79.5 79.7 79.2 77.7 75.1 71.4 67.0 62.2 57.1 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 12 16 21 24 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 65 60 58 63 57 37 20 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -13. -18. -25. -31. -38. -44. -51. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 0. 6. 11. 15. 10. -4. -7. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -8. -9. -14. -19. -35. -60. -73. -88. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.1 78.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.30 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 14.1% 9.8% 7.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 6.4% 4.4% 2.9% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 22( 35) 23( 50) 21( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 100 101 101 98 94 89 87 86 81 65 44 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 98 99 99 96 92 87 85 84 79 63 42 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 92 89 85 80 78 77 72 56 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 82 78 73 71 70 65 49 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 73 69 64 62 61 56 40 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 76 72 67 65 64 59 43 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 96 100 91 85 81 77 72 70 69 64 48 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS