* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 105 99 90 78 67 56 51 44 39 32 27 21 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 105 99 90 78 67 56 51 44 39 32 27 21 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 109 105 99 93 81 70 60 51 44 38 34 30 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 2 3 2 3 4 4 6 8 18 25 27 30 34 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 295 267 253 250 259 257 332 328 347 241 251 242 258 258 263 264 265 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.4 25.2 24.6 24.1 24.1 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 139 138 127 115 109 104 103 106 104 105 108 110 111 113 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 58 57 51 49 46 44 41 41 36 29 25 20 17 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 28 29 26 27 25 24 21 19 17 17 13 11 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -1 10 20 40 43 54 40 27 1 7 -3 0 -15 -17 -30 -24 -39 200 MB DIV 15 28 -6 -11 -4 -8 -4 -8 0 11 -5 -11 -17 -36 -20 -32 5 700-850 TADV 5 6 3 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 3 4 -2 -2 -3 -4 2 4 LAND (KM) 737 766 773 795 823 909 1008 1102 1241 1405 1559 1660 1786 1939 1877 1800 1733 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.0 116.6 117.3 118.0 119.7 121.6 123.7 125.8 127.9 129.8 131.6 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 9 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -22. -31. -40. -48. -54. -58. -61. -64. -67. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -12. -15. -15. -17. -18. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -32. -43. -54. -59. -66. -71. -78. -83. -89. -93. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.5 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 675.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 -0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 19.2% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 7.2% 5.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##