* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 101 101 100 94 90 89 90 88 79 61 37 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 101 101 100 94 90 89 90 88 79 45 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 95 96 99 101 102 95 86 85 82 68 53 35 31 27 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 5 10 18 18 18 23 44 49 68 67 66 62 57 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -9 -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 7 -3 8 -1 2 0 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 266 243 232 193 146 166 172 210 214 225 216 213 212 220 235 239 227 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.4 28.5 28.0 28.4 26.4 22.7 17.8 13.6 12.1 10.4 11.0 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 160 161 165 157 144 139 146 122 95 78 72 71 70 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 136 136 139 132 122 120 128 108 86 73 69 68 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -49.8 -49.8 -49.3 -49.7 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -48.8 -48.1 -48.8 -48.8 -47.9 -45.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.4 3.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 11 9 9 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 52 51 43 40 41 44 53 49 48 47 48 43 48 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 38 37 37 34 34 35 41 46 47 44 35 27 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 16 27 2 -9 0 6 50 71 42 62 95 131 171 180 202 205 201 200 MB DIV 51 59 22 39 66 35 63 46 94 86 127 100 55 62 16 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 3 11 10 -1 -1 7 -3 3 -6 10 -4 -95 -65 -52 -31 -2 LAND (KM) 151 148 143 143 154 146 92 46 275 299 162 19 0 517 1044 1384 962 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.9 31.4 32.8 34.4 36.6 39.2 42.4 46.1 49.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.0 79.2 79.4 79.6 79.4 78.4 76.3 72.8 68.6 64.2 59.7 54.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 10 15 19 22 24 24 25 26 28 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 74 64 58 57 61 46 26 19 52 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -28. -34. -41. -47. -52. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -27. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -1. 6. 12. 13. 7. -5. -16. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 3. 6. 6. 5. -1. -5. -6. -5. -7. -16. -34. -58. -79. -92.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 27.5 78.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 525.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 14.3% 9.9% 7.2% 7.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 10.2% 6.4% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 8.6% 5.6% 4.1% 3.3% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 23( 49) 22( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 4( 10) 1( 11) 1( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 97 101 101 100 94 90 89 90 88 79 45 25 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 96 100 100 99 93 89 88 89 87 78 44 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 95 95 94 88 84 83 84 82 73 39 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 84 78 74 73 74 72 63 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 75 69 65 64 65 63 54 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 75 69 65 64 65 63 54 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 97 88 82 78 72 68 67 68 66 57 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS