* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 99 101 102 104 102 96 93 98 98 90 74 50 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 99 101 102 104 102 96 93 98 98 90 61 37 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 96 96 99 101 105 103 92 87 88 78 58 39 33 29 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 7 5 13 15 16 18 35 52 57 62 60 63 73 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -10 -8 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 2 5 5 0 -3 0 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 280 245 227 162 154 171 171 225 217 224 211 212 223 235 249 246 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.3 28.4 26.9 22.2 18.2 16.1 9.5 11.2 10.0 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 161 161 163 158 142 145 127 92 79 75 69 70 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 139 136 136 138 133 121 126 112 84 74 71 68 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -49.0 -48.6 -49.6 -50.4 -49.4 -47.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 7 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 54 52 47 42 40 42 47 48 41 45 45 45 38 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 35 36 36 38 38 34 34 40 46 47 44 35 26 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 29 3 -9 16 32 56 81 63 74 128 157 152 178 164 111 200 MB DIV 9 44 53 19 39 72 60 58 75 86 109 104 81 58 22 0 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 10 9 -2 0 -4 -1 -5 3 0 -37 -79 -54 -3 -26 LAND (KM) 166 161 158 157 146 202 131 88 115 354 297 58 -59 332 831 1391 1176 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.5 29.1 30.5 32.0 33.5 35.4 37.8 40.8 44.5 48.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.0 79.3 79.3 78.7 77.2 74.5 70.9 66.6 61.7 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 16 20 25 26 26 26 26 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 78 74 66 61 57 64 47 25 21 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -13. -18. -24. -30. -36. -43. -50. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 1. 0. 8. 15. 16. 10. -2. -14. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -1. 1. 2. 4. 2. -4. -7. -2. -2. -10. -26. -50. -72. -91.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.1 78.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 563.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.3% 7.6% 7.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.6% 3.4% 3.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 24( 53) 26( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 14( 24) 9( 31) 1( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 99 101 102 104 102 96 93 98 98 90 61 37 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 102 104 105 107 105 99 96 101 101 93 64 40 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 99 101 99 93 90 95 95 87 58 34 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 93 91 85 82 87 87 79 50 26 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 81 75 72 77 77 69 40 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 77 75 69 66 71 71 63 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 96 99 90 84 80 78 72 69 74 74 66 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS