* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 108 108 105 96 84 73 63 57 50 43 38 32 27 20 16 V (KT) LAND 100 106 108 108 105 96 84 73 63 57 50 43 38 32 27 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 108 105 101 88 77 65 55 47 40 35 30 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 4 4 3 4 6 4 5 4 16 23 27 34 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 0 6 4 2 4 0 4 1 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 338 328 314 298 313 297 244 297 284 305 228 236 247 253 250 253 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.4 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 142 140 136 124 115 107 102 103 104 103 105 107 107 108 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 63 59 56 53 51 47 43 40 38 32 27 23 21 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 26 26 26 24 22 20 18 16 13 11 8 7 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 3 2 12 21 42 47 32 7 -13 -14 -30 -33 -51 -48 -35 -24 200 MB DIV 43 40 7 13 10 -12 -5 -18 -34 -2 -5 -19 -27 -5 -9 -7 -28 700-850 TADV -3 -1 4 4 1 -1 1 -5 0 1 5 3 -5 -1 -4 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 698 718 746 770 789 853 953 1043 1136 1287 1443 1534 1618 1707 1796 1880 1924 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.9 115.6 116.3 117.0 118.5 120.2 122.1 124.2 126.5 128.5 130.3 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -29. -36. -41. -46. -49. -52. -55. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 8. 5. -4. -16. -27. -37. -43. -50. -57. -62. -68. -73. -80. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.0 114.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 540.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 -1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.1% 27.7% 20.6% 20.4% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 13.9% 14.6% 10.5% 4.6% 4.4% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.7% 13.9% 11.7% 10.3% 6.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##