* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 100 104 105 108 106 102 96 97 101 98 81 58 42 32 17 V (KT) LAND 105 101 100 104 105 108 106 102 96 97 101 98 74 42 25 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 100 100 102 105 108 108 101 90 88 82 63 48 36 35 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 10 7 8 10 15 19 23 27 42 41 49 61 60 53 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -7 -6 -4 -4 0 -1 0 4 0 10 3 4 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 280 286 283 238 245 151 164 167 206 215 223 213 219 226 226 233 246 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.4 17.7 14.8 9.9 11.0 9.6 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 164 162 162 161 148 144 139 122 78 74 69 70 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 139 139 138 137 136 127 125 122 108 74 70 68 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.3 -49.5 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -48.9 -49.4 -48.8 -48.5 -47.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 11 9 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 59 56 51 44 41 42 46 54 51 50 50 49 51 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 31 36 36 38 38 37 34 37 43 48 44 36 33 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 16 30 1 3 15 54 77 41 66 99 113 141 168 211 220 200 MB DIV -4 6 47 60 24 76 40 77 50 114 104 147 89 82 67 51 51 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 2 10 0 0 4 -11 5 9 -7 19 8 -100 -88 -6 LAND (KM) 164 150 142 142 143 158 182 123 80 297 238 106 22 163 668 1288 1193 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.8 31.2 32.8 34.7 36.9 39.9 43.5 47.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.5 79.1 77.9 75.5 72.3 68.4 63.7 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 12 15 19 23 26 26 26 27 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 80 78 73 64 59 61 56 33 25 31 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -27. -33. -40. -47. -54. -60. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 6. 6. 5. 1. 4. 12. 17. 11. 0. -4. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -1. 0. 3. 1. -3. -9. -8. -4. -7. -24. -47. -63. -73. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.9 78.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 510.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.5% 2.8% 2.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 22( 43) 27( 58) 28( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 29 32( 52) 23( 63) 7( 65) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 100 104 105 108 106 102 96 97 101 98 74 42 25 16 DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 107 108 111 109 105 99 100 104 101 77 45 28 19 DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 105 106 109 107 103 97 98 102 99 75 43 26 17 DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 96 99 97 93 87 88 92 89 65 33 16 DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 89 87 83 77 78 82 79 55 23 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 84 82 78 72 73 77 74 50 18 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 101 100 91 85 81 79 75 69 70 74 71 47 15 DIS DIS DIS