* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 77 82 87 87 82 73 67 59 52 46 36 27 21 17 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 77 82 87 87 82 73 67 59 52 46 36 27 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 75 78 79 75 68 61 55 49 42 34 27 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 6 7 4 5 3 6 2 5 12 22 33 35 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 0 3 -2 2 0 0 -4 2 3 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 320 306 325 330 317 292 245 200 280 114 169 169 192 200 218 231 239 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.4 25.6 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.3 24.2 24.4 24.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 145 143 142 140 137 127 119 110 107 104 106 105 107 111 118 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 65 63 57 54 51 48 47 43 43 37 36 31 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 23 24 25 26 26 23 22 20 17 15 11 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 6 2 0 16 45 53 41 24 6 -1 3 -3 -1 -8 -37 200 MB DIV 24 32 25 30 34 29 0 6 -21 -16 11 24 35 2 10 -29 -27 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -6 -4 4 2 1 -8 -4 1 3 7 5 5 -2 -10 LAND (KM) 748 734 737 759 790 830 891 1001 1106 1192 1315 1470 1606 1699 1833 1879 1659 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.7 117.1 118.6 120.4 122.3 124.3 126.3 128.5 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 11 9 10 11 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 27. 22. 13. 7. -1. -8. -14. -24. -32. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.5 112.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 47.2% 35.3% 25.7% 19.0% 22.2% 16.8% 12.4% Logistic: 30.0% 44.5% 25.7% 18.6% 10.8% 13.7% 2.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 5.3% 11.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.7% 34.5% 20.9% 15.1% 10.4% 12.1% 6.5% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##