* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 139 135 133 129 125 118 117 112 107 102 103 103 96 82 59 42 V (KT) LAND 145 139 135 133 129 125 118 117 112 107 102 103 103 96 82 49 31 V (KT) LGEM 145 138 133 130 128 124 118 115 113 106 96 89 84 65 49 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 11 11 14 8 14 9 15 19 27 32 42 58 53 53 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -4 3 1 -3 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 308 323 320 302 293 282 248 183 185 173 206 210 216 205 210 231 248 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.6 28.4 28.4 26.0 22.4 16.3 10.8 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 163 158 162 158 146 144 145 118 94 77 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 144 142 141 137 134 137 133 124 124 127 105 86 73 70 69 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.3 -48.6 -47.8 -49.0 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 68 64 62 56 54 46 41 43 47 51 43 42 47 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 29 33 33 37 37 37 36 39 44 46 42 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 26 28 12 17 -9 6 31 83 104 90 131 171 226 167 201 200 MB DIV 9 18 21 12 5 39 9 64 47 91 67 92 89 96 59 71 80 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 0 1 1 6 3 -3 0 -9 9 0 -5 -53 -47 -75 LAND (KM) 195 164 134 109 87 76 67 109 158 113 55 238 293 151 124 237 781 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.7 28.7 29.9 31.2 32.7 34.4 36.5 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.4 78.7 78.9 79.2 79.6 80.0 80.1 79.5 78.2 76.1 73.2 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 14 18 23 27 31 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 82 86 87 85 78 61 41 49 46 31 27 46 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -7. -14. -26. -41. -54. -66. -75. -80. -86. -95.-101.-106.-109. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -11. -5. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 6. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 7. 11. 11. 11. 9. 13. 18. 19. 12. -2. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -16. -20. -27. -28. -33. -38. -43. -42. -42. -49. -63. -86.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 26.6 78.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 529.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 48( 82) 44( 90) 38( 94) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 86 83( 98) 73( 99) 67(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 139 135 133 129 125 118 117 112 107 102 103 103 96 82 49 31 18HR AGO 145 144 140 138 134 130 123 122 117 112 107 108 108 101 87 54 36 12HR AGO 145 142 141 139 135 131 124 123 118 113 108 109 109 102 88 55 37 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 131 127 120 119 114 109 104 105 105 98 84 51 33 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 122 115 114 109 104 99 100 100 93 79 46 28 IN 6HR 145 139 130 124 121 119 112 111 106 101 96 97 97 90 76 43 25 IN 12HR 145 139 135 126 120 116 109 108 103 98 93 94 94 87 73 40 22