* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 71 79 82 82 81 79 74 67 60 55 47 40 34 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 71 79 82 82 81 79 74 67 60 55 47 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 62 67 73 78 79 78 72 65 58 50 43 36 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 2 5 2 2 4 3 7 8 14 23 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 3 0 2 -2 0 -5 -4 0 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 260 277 304 313 298 307 263 292 327 240 221 165 184 174 185 200 208 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.2 25.9 25.0 24.2 23.5 23.7 24.2 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 154 143 144 140 135 122 113 105 97 99 104 104 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 67 66 65 60 57 55 49 46 43 41 38 35 27 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 22 24 25 26 27 26 25 22 18 16 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 5 14 14 17 13 43 53 61 39 26 -2 2 1 20 -1 200 MB DIV 36 56 55 32 15 41 19 31 21 -13 -17 -7 15 5 7 -17 -16 700-850 TADV 7 1 -4 -4 0 -4 1 -3 -6 0 -2 3 2 6 2 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 696 719 759 764 747 766 823 860 930 1017 1086 1153 1255 1387 1510 1637 1760 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.9 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.0 114.7 116.2 117.7 119.2 120.8 122.6 124.4 126.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 24 24 21 10 11 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 9. 5. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 29. 32. 32. 31. 29. 24. 17. 10. 5. -3. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 109.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 40.6% 32.1% 23.5% 15.5% 38.8% 26.6% 17.2% Logistic: 7.5% 17.5% 8.9% 4.9% 2.9% 8.0% 9.1% 4.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 16.4% 3.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 24.8% 14.9% 9.9% 6.5% 16.0% 12.0% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##