* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 136 131 129 125 123 120 114 114 107 105 103 96 92 88 71 V (KT) LAND 140 139 136 131 129 125 123 120 114 114 107 105 103 96 92 88 71 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 136 133 130 127 123 113 106 104 99 93 86 77 70 61 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 10 13 12 13 16 17 29 27 30 41 69 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 0 -5 -6 -2 -2 -2 -3 2 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 316 333 312 310 319 303 296 248 245 191 181 184 213 212 223 231 229 SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.2 28.2 28.1 26.9 20.6 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 168 169 168 168 168 167 153 150 152 150 140 141 141 126 84 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 146 146 145 141 140 130 127 128 126 120 122 122 110 77 70 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 -49.4 -49.6 -49.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 63 63 68 62 62 56 50 43 42 46 44 37 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 25 28 30 34 35 35 38 37 38 40 38 40 44 39 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 15 -2 4 34 14 27 4 34 75 115 111 90 113 179 70 200 MB DIV 15 41 32 13 13 25 13 42 35 65 75 77 65 53 81 47 9 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 1 2 9 0 1 -7 -8 19 29 13 -38 LAND (KM) 354 294 233 194 154 106 83 80 114 150 81 78 130 373 312 205 95 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.4 28.3 29.6 31.1 32.5 33.9 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.1 77.7 78.1 78.5 79.0 79.4 79.8 79.9 79.7 78.8 77.0 74.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 2 4 6 7 7 9 12 15 18 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 62 64 69 75 79 78 71 47 50 47 31 21 30 22 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -5. -11. -22. -36. -49. -60. -68. -73. -78. -83. -87. -92. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -4. -1. 3. 7. 8. 9. 12. 13. 10. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 16. 14. 15. 15. 11. 12. 16. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -11. -15. -17. -20. -26. -26. -33. -35. -37. -44. -48. -52. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 26.5 76.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 49( 77) 44( 87) 38( 92) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 56 62( 83) 69( 95) 65( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 139 136 131 129 125 123 120 114 114 107 105 103 96 92 88 71 18HR AGO 140 139 136 131 129 125 123 120 114 114 107 105 103 96 92 88 71 12HR AGO 140 137 136 131 129 125 123 120 114 114 107 105 103 96 92 88 71 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 128 124 122 119 113 113 106 104 102 95 91 87 70 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 117 115 112 106 106 99 97 95 88 84 80 63 IN 6HR 140 139 130 124 121 120 118 115 109 109 102 100 98 91 87 83 66 IN 12HR 140 139 136 127 121 117 115 112 106 106 99 97 95 88 84 80 63