* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 127 125 122 119 122 118 119 117 117 112 110 103 98 88 81 V (KT) LAND 130 130 127 125 122 119 122 118 119 117 117 112 110 103 98 88 81 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 127 124 122 119 118 116 114 109 104 98 88 78 69 61 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 10 8 11 7 13 9 17 12 21 26 32 36 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 0 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 330 314 296 309 317 294 306 272 258 239 195 211 198 212 224 229 237 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.4 28.7 28.1 27.3 28.4 25.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 159 160 159 164 167 160 155 158 146 138 128 145 116 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 136 136 134 137 140 135 131 133 122 115 109 126 102 106 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.0 -49.5 -49.6 -49.6 -49.9 -49.6 -50.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 6 4 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 61 63 64 66 62 61 55 52 49 41 34 34 38 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 21 23 22 24 30 30 34 35 37 35 37 37 37 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR -4 6 -4 7 18 1 26 17 33 -1 23 41 93 71 55 43 14 200 MB DIV 32 26 16 -4 28 13 27 17 34 16 64 24 83 70 13 -22 16 700-850 TADV -5 1 2 0 -2 -1 -2 1 1 7 2 -1 -1 -8 -6 -5 4 LAND (KM) 590 526 445 378 313 224 172 145 124 136 144 79 56 64 303 340 287 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.7 29.9 31.3 32.8 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.8 75.6 76.3 76.9 77.8 78.4 78.9 79.4 79.8 79.6 78.6 77.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 12 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 53 56 58 52 56 61 60 61 48 27 19 11 49 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -32. -41. -51. -57. -61. -66. -71. -74. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -0. 3. 5. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 10. 12. 17. 18. 20. 18. 19. 17. 15. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -8. -12. -11. -13. -13. -18. -20. -27. -32. -42. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 26.1 74.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 619.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 41( 66) 34( 78) 33( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 39( 52) 30( 67) 35( 78) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 130 127 125 122 119 122 118 119 117 117 112 110 103 98 88 81 18HR AGO 130 129 126 124 121 118 121 117 118 116 116 111 109 102 97 87 80 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 121 118 121 117 118 116 116 111 109 102 97 87 80 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 117 114 117 113 114 112 112 107 105 98 93 83 76 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 108 111 107 108 106 106 101 99 92 87 77 70 IN 6HR 130 130 121 115 112 107 110 106 107 105 105 100 98 91 86 76 69 IN 12HR 130 130 127 118 112 108 111 107 108 106 106 101 99 92 87 77 70