* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 116 115 114 111 113 110 111 112 110 109 112 112 107 99 90 V (KT) LAND 115 117 116 115 114 111 113 110 111 112 110 109 112 112 107 99 90 V (KT) LGEM 115 118 118 117 117 116 114 113 111 108 103 96 96 95 88 77 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 10 9 13 10 13 10 15 15 10 15 16 19 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -3 0 0 0 -5 -1 -1 -6 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 266 299 316 336 319 330 302 310 299 284 270 260 217 209 193 218 225 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.3 27.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 154 159 161 162 164 161 165 161 152 148 151 155 141 132 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 135 140 141 140 139 136 138 135 129 125 127 130 120 111 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -51.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 10 6 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 59 61 60 66 63 64 58 58 53 54 56 53 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 18 20 21 25 25 28 31 33 33 36 38 37 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -35 -31 -11 -5 0 27 0 31 9 24 4 33 80 92 84 56 200 MB DIV 29 24 11 36 11 0 25 5 26 3 29 27 73 82 85 60 14 700-850 TADV 4 0 -4 -5 0 -3 0 0 0 2 5 6 2 -4 -9 -4 0 LAND (KM) 611 637 629 614 563 402 273 186 112 50 17 11 87 93 60 48 172 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.5 28.3 29.5 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.8 72.7 73.5 74.4 76.0 77.3 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.5 81.0 80.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 6 6 7 9 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 51 40 42 55 60 53 54 53 59 53 33 29 42 38 22 14 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -20. -27. -33. -38. -42. -45. -48. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 21. 21. 19. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -1. -4. -2. -5. -4. -3. -5. -6. -3. -3. -8. -16. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 25.3 71.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 582.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 21.8% 13.5% 8.7% 5.9% 8.2% 6.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 14.6% 20.5% 7.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 19.3% 7.0% 3.3% 2.1% 2.9% 2.1% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 29( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 16( 30) 38( 57) 28( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 117 116 115 114 111 113 110 111 112 110 109 112 112 107 99 90 18HR AGO 115 114 113 112 111 108 110 107 108 109 107 106 109 109 104 96 87 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 109 106 108 105 106 107 105 104 107 107 102 94 85 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 101 103 100 101 102 100 99 102 102 97 89 80 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 95 92 93 94 92 91 94 94 89 81 72 IN 6HR 115 117 108 102 99 97 99 96 97 98 96 95 98 98 93 85 76 IN 12HR 115 117 116 107 101 97 99 96 97 98 96 95 98 98 93 85 76