* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 106 107 109 110 110 114 115 115 113 108 108 107 102 102 99 V (KT) LAND 100 104 106 107 109 110 110 114 115 115 72 45 34 30 29 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 100 104 106 107 109 112 115 118 116 112 73 45 34 30 38 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 11 8 11 6 9 6 12 10 14 2 4 13 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -4 1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 253 293 319 336 310 333 300 314 303 292 285 253 207 204 207 194 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 153 154 159 163 164 165 167 167 169 156 157 153 150 152 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 135 136 140 142 142 141 142 141 143 131 130 126 124 126 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 8 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 59 56 57 58 58 62 61 63 61 60 57 55 52 53 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 19 22 22 26 28 31 31 29 29 30 28 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -22 -37 -27 -13 -7 11 4 16 7 16 -7 2 5 59 61 82 200 MB DIV 45 34 14 13 23 2 22 -2 27 6 24 25 59 42 80 61 60 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -2 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -1 3 6 4 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 560 600 625 612 609 463 313 193 95 16 -40 -55 -47 -11 44 44 23 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.6 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.3 71.1 72.0 72.8 73.7 75.4 76.9 78.1 79.1 80.0 80.8 81.3 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 57 49 38 43 57 55 55 54 58 51 46 35 34 39 40 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -28. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 14. 16. 17. 13. 12. 11. 8. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 14. 15. 15. 13. 8. 8. 7. 2. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.8 70.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 17.9% 12.7% 8.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.6% 26.5% 18.1% 13.1% 9.0% 14.9% 12.2% 4.3% Bayesian: 19.6% 46.1% 20.9% 7.8% 4.9% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 15.8% 30.2% 17.2% 9.9% 7.4% 6.3% 4.2% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 28( 59) 29( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 12( 23) 29( 46) 35( 65) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 106 107 109 110 110 114 115 115 72 45 34 30 29 29 26 18HR AGO 100 99 101 102 104 105 105 109 110 110 67 40 29 25 24 24 21 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 99 100 100 104 105 105 62 35 24 20 19 19 16 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 93 93 97 98 98 55 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 82 86 87 87 44 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 85 85 89 90 90 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 104 106 97 91 87 87 91 92 92 49 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS