* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 103 104 104 103 106 110 109 110 105 105 102 101 97 94 92 V (KT) LAND 95 100 103 104 104 103 106 110 109 110 92 58 40 32 32 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 95 101 104 106 107 108 112 114 112 109 104 59 40 32 33 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 12 11 10 11 9 10 10 14 13 17 13 13 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 -1 1 0 1 -3 0 -3 4 7 3 SHEAR DIR 233 234 247 294 322 310 334 314 314 302 303 270 297 268 268 230 234 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 158 154 154 161 163 168 165 167 167 161 158 158 151 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 140 136 136 141 141 144 140 141 140 135 132 131 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 8 6 6 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 56 58 61 60 64 62 64 59 62 60 60 55 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 17 18 17 21 24 25 27 26 28 27 27 26 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -31 -21 -37 -27 0 7 28 1 11 -4 11 -20 -2 -1 35 47 200 MB DIV 28 56 37 9 4 0 -6 16 -11 15 1 35 22 44 37 83 52 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 0 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 5 8 9 9 2 4 LAND (KM) 503 550 600 627 620 555 393 253 144 58 -4 -36 -60 -37 9 39 7 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.9 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.2 71.0 71.8 72.7 74.5 76.1 77.5 78.6 79.5 80.3 80.9 81.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 49 56 51 39 42 61 52 56 55 57 48 40 34 38 40 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 12. 10. 12. 9. 8. 6. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 11. 15. 14. 15. 10. 10. 7. 6. 2. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 24.2 69.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 506.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 23.5% 20.3% 14.0% 8.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.3% 38.1% 28.6% 18.0% 11.2% 23.7% 16.2% 8.2% Bayesian: 29.3% 51.4% 26.8% 10.7% 4.9% 6.1% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 22.6% 37.7% 25.2% 14.2% 8.2% 13.4% 5.8% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 25( 38) 26( 54) 25( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 7( 11) 9( 19) 13( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 100 103 104 104 103 106 110 109 110 92 58 40 32 32 30 28 18HR AGO 95 94 97 98 98 97 100 104 103 104 86 52 34 26 26 24 22 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 92 91 94 98 97 98 80 46 28 20 20 18 16 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 84 87 91 90 91 73 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 75 78 82 81 82 64 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 100 91 85 82 80 83 87 86 87 69 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 100 103 94 88 84 87 91 90 91 73 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS