* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 89 93 95 99 100 104 102 107 104 104 98 97 93 92 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 89 93 95 99 100 104 102 107 62 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 86 89 92 98 103 104 102 103 102 61 39 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 3 8 12 12 15 11 11 11 16 15 16 16 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 -5 -2 -4 0 0 0 -2 2 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 200 232 250 243 275 334 299 320 290 293 266 289 267 279 252 255 212 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 158 158 156 156 159 164 166 163 165 161 164 159 156 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 141 142 141 138 136 138 141 141 137 138 135 137 131 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 59 59 58 63 61 68 64 65 60 62 56 55 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 16 17 20 21 23 22 27 26 28 26 27 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -45 -32 -22 -24 9 -1 23 -2 17 -15 11 -25 -2 -4 31 200 MB DIV 36 30 14 49 30 13 14 -3 25 -3 25 10 60 23 63 49 89 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 1 -6 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 4 1 6 0 LAND (KM) 397 444 513 565 622 617 503 332 184 84 4 -46 -78 -77 -61 -46 -77 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.6 24.3 24.9 25.4 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.8 69.5 70.4 71.3 73.2 75.0 76.7 78.2 79.3 80.3 81.0 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 50 58 46 50 57 53 53 56 44 40 32 15 10 16 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 10. 15. 14. 15. 11. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 19. 20. 24. 22. 27. 24. 24. 18. 17. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.8 68.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 21.4% 15.6% 10.4% 8.5% 10.3% 12.3% 11.8% Logistic: 5.8% 24.8% 16.3% 9.9% 5.7% 13.4% 9.1% 7.2% Bayesian: 3.4% 16.0% 6.2% 1.4% 0.8% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 20.7% 12.7% 7.2% 5.0% 9.1% 7.3% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 14( 28) 17( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 2( 5) 5( 10) 6( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 86 89 93 95 99 100 104 102 107 62 40 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 82 85 89 91 95 96 100 98 103 58 36 27 24 23 23 12HR AGO 80 77 76 79 83 85 89 90 94 92 97 52 30 21 18 17 17 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 74 76 80 81 85 83 88 43 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 66 70 71 75 73 78 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 83 86 77 71 67 71 72 76 74 79 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS