* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 64 69 72 74 78 82 87 90 94 96 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 64 69 72 74 46 51 55 59 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 51 56 62 67 71 74 76 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 3 4 6 7 12 9 14 10 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 0 -2 0 -7 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 189 278 4 12 298 298 261 254 252 270 219 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 148 152 154 155 159 157 154 155 155 158 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 148 152 154 155 157 155 148 148 146 148 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 41 42 43 45 48 48 48 48 48 51 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 9 8 12 6 13 14 17 6 -2 -16 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -4 0 -14 -13 5 22 20 38 4 6 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -1 0 2 1 0 5 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 636 624 568 473 377 281 389 355 196 128 15 -33 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.2 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.2 19.5 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.6 55.8 56.9 58.0 60.2 62.2 64.3 66.3 68.1 69.8 71.3 72.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 24 34 43 43 33 44 45 69 86 83 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 24. 29. 32. 34. 38. 42. 47. 50. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.4 53.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.94 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 23.8% 13.6% 8.6% 7.9% 17.7% 26.1% 42.6% Logistic: 11.3% 34.4% 31.8% 22.6% 10.3% 30.8% 25.3% 26.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 26.2% 22.2% 1.1% 0.4% 8.4% 3.8% 1.0% Consensus: 6.8% 28.1% 22.5% 10.8% 6.2% 19.0% 18.4% 23.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 64 69 72 74 46 51 55 59 63 65 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 52 58 60 65 68 70 42 47 51 55 59 61 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 46 52 54 59 62 64 36 41 45 49 53 55 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 43 45 50 53 55 27 32 36 40 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT