* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 49 56 62 65 70 71 71 73 77 80 84 88 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 49 56 62 65 70 71 71 44 48 51 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 45 50 56 61 64 64 63 41 45 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 1 5 9 6 8 15 8 16 13 6 4 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 7 3 -2 0 0 -7 -2 -2 -6 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 93 86 80 345 6 311 285 255 237 231 272 239 127 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 141 144 150 154 157 157 155 153 155 157 159 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 141 144 149 153 156 155 151 146 147 149 149 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 41 42 45 49 48 47 49 49 53 56 58 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 9 10 7 8 6 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 16 15 12 7 14 12 15 15 28 11 9 -4 -19 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -21 -12 -9 -1 -11 15 15 33 45 10 1 9 13 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -2 0 1 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 642 641 661 615 464 352 402 393 183 70 0 -44 56 76 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.1 53.1 54.1 55.2 57.2 59.3 61.4 63.4 65.5 67.4 69.2 71.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 15 20 29 44 37 46 47 59 84 80 56 54 49 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -9. -9. -12. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 35. 36. 36. 38. 42. 45. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 51.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.90 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.8% 9.5% 6.6% 5.7% 9.4% 14.1% 26.7% Logistic: 3.0% 11.0% 8.3% 4.1% 1.5% 4.4% 9.8% 18.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.6% 9.7% 6.3% 3.6% 2.4% 4.7% 8.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 43 49 56 62 65 70 71 71 44 48 51 55 59 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 47 54 60 63 68 69 69 42 46 49 53 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 42 49 55 58 63 64 64 37 41 44 48 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 41 47 50 55 56 56 29 33 36 40 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT